Bitcoin Could Reclaim $100K as Scaramucci Points to the 2028

Halving

Bitcoin has returned to the $64,000–$65,000 range, but SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci believes the cryptocurrency could eventually climb back above $100,000, with the 2028 Bitcoin halving potentially playing a central role in the next major supply-driven move.

Scaramucci made the comments during an appearance on CNBC's Squawk Box, arguing that the next halving cycle could tighten Bitcoin's new supply and help prices move higher.

However, his outlook comes while Bitcoin remains in a challenging market environment, with capital flowing toward artificial intelligence investments and debate growing over whether Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle still works as it did in previous markets.

Bitcoin's Road Back Toward $100K

Bitcoin briefly reached around $65,000 on August 18, according to the market data cited by CryptoPotato. The cryptocurrency remains well below its previous cycle high of more than $126,000, recorded in October 2025.

Bitcoin's last daily close above $100,000 came on November 13, 2025, when BTC closed around $100,035.

Since then, Bitcoin has experienced a substantial correction, including a 2026 low below $58,000 according to the cited data.

Scaramucci nevertheless expects Bitcoin to eventually recover above the six-figure threshold.

“I think as the halving cycle comes in again, it will tighten prices and you'll see a move back up over $100k.”

The 2028 Halving Could Be the Next Major Catalyst

Bitcoin's next halving is currently expected around April 2028, when the network reaches block 1,050,000.

The event will reduce the mining reward from:

3.125 BTC → 1.5625 BTC per block

Bitcoin halvings occur approximately every 210,000 blocks, reducing the amount of new BTC entering circulation.

The basic investment thesis behind the halving is straightforward:

Lower new supply + sustained demand = potential upward pressure on price

However, this relationship is not guaranteed. Market liquidity, institutional demand, regulation and macroeconomic conditions can all influence Bitcoin's price.

Bitcoin's Current Bear Market Is Different

Scaramucci described Bitcoin as being in a clear bear market, but he also noted that the current decline is less severe than some previous crypto downturns.

Bitcoin's recent correction has been accompanied by unusually compressed volatility.

One factor Scaramucci identified is the movement of capital away from crypto and toward artificial intelligence infrastructure and AI-related investments. He also noted that some Bitcoin miners are redirecting computing resources toward AI infrastructure.

This creates a competition for capital between two major investment narratives:

AI

  • Semiconductor infrastructure
  • Data centers
  • Computing power
  • AI models
  • Enterprise technology

Bitcoin

  • Digital scarcity
  • Institutional adoption
  • Spot ETFs
  • Monetary alternative
  • Long-term supply reduction

Is the Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle Still Reliable?

This is one of the biggest questions surrounding Scaramucci's forecast.

Historically, Bitcoin has followed a rough four-year cycle influenced partly by its halving schedule.

But the market has changed considerably since previous cycles.

Bitcoin now has:

  • Spot ETFs
  • Greater institutional participation
  • Corporate treasury adoption
  • More regulated derivatives
  • Larger global liquidity exposure
  • Competition from AI as an investment theme

As a result, analysts including Scott Melker and Arthur Hayes have questioned whether the traditional four-year cycle remains reliable.

PlanB has also suggested that the potential cycle-top window could extend from 2026 to 2028, illustrating the uncertainty surrounding the traditional cycle model.

Scaramucci's Previous Bitcoin Prediction

This isn't the first time Scaramucci has based a Bitcoin forecast on the halving cycle.

Before the April 2024 halving, he predicted that Bitcoin could reach approximately $170,000, based on a historical pattern in which BTC's price around the halving was multiplied by roughly four about 18 months later.

Bitcoin was trading around $43,000 when that forecast was made.

The following cycle eventually pushed Bitcoin above $126,000, although the timing and magnitude differed from the simple historical model.

That history provides some support for his long-term thesis, but it also shows why cycle-based price predictions should be treated as scenarios rather than guarantees.

Institutional Bitcoin Could Change the Next Cycle

The current Bitcoin market is fundamentally different from earlier halving cycles.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have created regulated investment channels for traditional investors, while financial institutions continue expanding their exposure to digital assets.

This could make the relationship between Bitcoin's declining issuance and market demand more complicated.

Previously, retail investors and crypto-native institutions dominated much of the market.

Today, Bitcoin is increasingly influenced by:

ETFs → Asset managers → Corporations → Institutions → Retail

If demand remains strong while new BTC issuance falls, the supply-demand imbalance could become more significant.

Why $100K Matters

The $100,000 level is more than just a round number.

Bitcoin has already demonstrated that it can trade above this psychological threshold, but reclaiming it on a sustained basis would represent an important recovery from the current bear-market conditions.

A move back above $100K could signal:

  • Renewed institutional demand
  • Improved risk appetite
  • Stronger post-bear-market momentum
  • Greater confidence in the next halving cycle
  • A potential return toward previous all-time highs

However, Bitcoin would first need to overcome multiple resistance zones as it moves higher.

Potential Bullish Scenario

Scaramucci's thesis could gain credibility if several conditions develop simultaneously:

  1. Bitcoin stabilizes after its current correction.
  2. Institutional demand increases.
  3. Capital flows back from AI and other risk assets.
  4. Bitcoin ETF demand strengthens.
  5. The 2028 halving approaches.
  6. New BTC supply continues declining.
  7. Global liquidity becomes more supportive.

Under this scenario, Bitcoin could gradually rebuild momentum toward and eventually above $100,000.

Risks to the $100K Thesis

There are also significant risks.

Macro Conditions

Higher interest rates or tighter liquidity could continue weighing on Bitcoin.

AI Capital Rotation

If investors continue prioritizing AI infrastructure, Bitcoin could struggle to attract enough incremental capital.

Cycle Uncertainty

The traditional four-year cycle may not repeat exactly.

Regulatory Risks

Changes in crypto regulation could affect institutional demand.

Volatility

Bitcoin remains capable of large drawdowns even during long-term bullish cycles.

Bitcoin's Halving Timeline

Event Approximate Timing Block Reward
2024 Halving April 2024 3.125 BTC
Current Cycle 2026 3.125 BTC
Next Halving Around April 2028 1.5625 BTC

The next halving is still roughly 20 months away, meaning the market has substantial time to change before the event occurs.

Bigger Picture: Supply vs. Capital

The debate surrounding Bitcoin's next cycle increasingly comes down to two forces.

Bitcoin's Supply

The protocol is programmed to reduce new issuance through halvings.

Global Capital

Investors decide where capital goes.

The 2028 halving can reduce Bitcoin's new supply, but it cannot guarantee that investors will continue buying BTC.

That's why the most important long-term equation remains:

Reduced supply + sustained demand = potential price appreciation

If demand weakens significantly, the halving alone may not be enough to produce another major rally.

What Investors Should Watch

Key indicators over the next 12–24 months include:

  • Bitcoin ETF inflows
  • Institutional BTC holdings
  • Global liquidity
  • U.S. interest-rate expectations
  • AI investment flows
  • Bitcoin mining economics
  • Long-term holder activity
  • BTC exchange balances
  • Derivatives positioning
  • Progress toward the 2028 halving

The behavior of these factors could provide more useful signals than relying solely on historical cycle patterns.

Final Take

Anthony Scaramucci remains bullish on Bitcoin's long-term prospects and believes the 2028 halving could help push BTC back above $100,000 by reducing the amount of new Bitcoin entering circulation.

But the path to $100K is unlikely to be straightforward.

Bitcoin is currently dealing with capital rotation toward AI, a challenging macro environment and growing uncertainty over whether its traditional four-year cycle remains reliable.

The next halving will reduce block rewards from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC, creating another supply reduction. Whether that translates into a major price rally will ultimately depend on how much demand the market can generate.

For now, $100K remains Scaramucci's long-term target—not a guaranteed forecast—and the 2028 halving is the catalyst he believes could help make it possible.